Workshop: Predictive modeling of clinical trajectories in JMP (April 1, 2025)
Workshop: Predictive modeling of clinical trajectories in JMP (April 1, 2025)
This project was funded by the German Research Foundation. The first funding period established the Associative Read-Out Model (AROM) as the first interactive activation model including semantic representations. To define associative relations between symbolic units , we used the log likelihood that two words co-occur more often together in the sentences of a large text corpus than predictable by their single word frequencies. In this first period we focused primarily on implicit word recognition, while we focused on explicit memory in the second funding phase.
Before this project started, reading research has already converged on the opinion that single-word features affect visual word recognition. If there was a consensus on how to define associative-semantic relations, human performance in one task was taken to predict human performance in another task, which we saw as circular reasoning. Luckily, now more researcher seem to agree that a language-model based, computational definition of associative-semantic relations does not only save time, but some also agree that deriving such measures directly from a sample of human experience, i.e. text corpora, is a deeper explanation than circular reasoning. The project used information about word pairs likely co-occurring in sentences to define associations between words presented in sequence. The AROM – a neurocognitive computer simulation model – used this information to predict which word is recognized with which probability from the associative-semantic language context. The model was tested in a series of experiments at which participants judge the association strength of word pairs, do lexical decisions, or while they read or complete sentences. Moreover, we generalized the model to account for brain data. Thus we successfully tested the hypotheses that the visual feature units of the model can predict early occipital activation, that associative activations predict N400 amplitudes in brain-electric measures, or that associative competition affects left inferior frontal gyrus activation. Finally, our general definition of associative-semantic relations opened many theoretical and applied perspectives for the research fields of reading or psychology.
While the initial funding period focused on word recognition in the cortical long-term memory store, the second phase intended to add a hippocampal layer, including conjunction units that store a pattern separated representation of episodic memory traces. As the resulting complementary learning systems model provided fully symbolic representations, we see this as a way more explainable AI than state-of-the-art transformer models. In recognition memory tasks, we used the semantic feature overlap with studied and prime words to predict recognition probabilities of words. We also examined the combination of semantic long-term and purely episodic associations within sentences for recognition memory. In eye tracking and brain-electric studies, we addressed the dynamics of implicit and explicit encoding and retrieval processes, while the neuroimaging studies aimed at providing a better understanding of the interplay between activated semantic long-term and episodic information in the human hippocampus.
At present, we are continuing with this line of research in the dissertation of Leo Sokolovič, where we use these models for the applied question of how executive symptoms in Alzheimer disease can be theoretically separated from impairments in episodic vs. semantic memory. Our recent Bayesian meta-analysis targeted the question which diagnostic markers can differentiate between Alzheimer’s disease, (subcortical) vascular vs. multi-infarct dementia, as well as (mild) cognitive impairment with a vascular etiology. While patients with vascular dementia performed worse in working memory and cognitive control tasks, Alzheimer disease was characterized by poor recall and recognition memory performance. Our localist connectionist simulations of recognition memory performance already allowed for a theoretical separation episodic and semantic processes. As Alzheimer also can come with executive symptoms, we recently extended this model by an explicit decision layer using leaky-noisy accumulators, to generate a solid theoretical foundation for the development of future diagnostic instruments.
Funding periods: 2014-2017 (HO 5139/4-1), 2017-2022 (HO 5139/4-2 and RA 1603/4-2) for Andre Rölke-Wellmann, Carsten Klein and Mareike Kleemann
Author: Markus J. Hofmann and Leo Sokolovic
(Selected) References
Peer-reviewed journals
Conference proceedings
Book chapters